Alibaba: Early Innings

Alibaba is a sprawling tech giant whose tentacles reach into every corner of China’s economy. It owns dominant e-commerce, media, technology, logistics, and financial businesses in China.

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Matt Franz
Modern Day Cigar Butts

Ben Graham became the father of value investing by buying bad companies at phenomenal prices. On the heels of the great depression Graham would buy businesses at ridiculously low prices to tangible assets. This is how Buffett started off his investing career as well before transitioning to buying high quality businesses after around 20 years of running Graham-style partnerships.

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Daniel Shuart
NVR And The Housing Cycle

At the risk of stating the obvious, housing is cyclical. Booms lead to oversupply, which leads to lower prices, which leads to a bust. Busts lead to undersupply, which leads to higher prices, which leads to booms. Today we’re at the point where undersupply has led to higher prices, incentivizing builders like NVR to increase supply.

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Matt Franz
A Primer on Cycles

The word “cycle” is one of the most widely used terms in economics and investing. Cycles are also one of the few things you can count on in any investment landscape and are among the most influential forces on dramatic changes in securities prices.

Most people just think of the stock market when they think of a cycle, but there are multiple different cycles working in concert that should be considered on their own and together when assessing where we as investors might stand in a market cycle.

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Daniel Shuart
Picking Unfair Fights

The Mongolian Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. At its zenith in 1259, it stretched from China to Hungry, through the Balkans and across the Mediterranean into Gaza, north to Siberia, and south to the Himalaya.

The Mongols fought unarmored on horseback with bows and arrows. They defeated every type of soldier imaginable, from Japanese samurai to heavily armored European knights. There's a lifetime of lessons to learn from the Mongol's triumphs, but one lesson stands above the rest: game selection.

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Matt Franz
Etsy: The Next Facebook or the Next eBay?

Etsy was a darling of the pandemic-induced rally for online retailers during 2020. The stock rose roughly eight-fold from its March 2020 low to its March 2021 high. The stock, along with many other 2020 high-flyers, is now more than 35% off its all-time highs.

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Daniel Shuart
Charlie Munger's "Investment Checklist"

“How can smart people so often be wrong? They don’t do what I’m telling you to do: use a checklist to be sure you get all the main models and use them together in a multimodular way.” – Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger is a gem of a human being. I’ve yet to come across anyone that matches Munger’s broad knowledge across subjects – from physics and engineering to psychology to accounting – woven into a “latticework” of decision making. If you read Munger’s speeches or listen to him at Berkshire annual meetings, it’s not surprising he has become a billionaire and remains as sharp as ever at age 97. To top it off, he generally delivers his point without holding back on the wit and sarcasm, making learning from him all the more enjoyable.

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Daniel Shuart
PetroChina: Case Study Of A One-Foot Hurdle

PetroChina was an unusual investment for Berkshire Hathaway in a lot of ways. First, it was unusually profitable, even by Buffett’s standards. A $488 million investment made between 2002 and 2003 turned into $4 billion by the time Buffett sold it between 2006 and 2007. That’s north of a 50% IRR!

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Matt Franz
Alimentation Couche-Tard: 100 Bagger at a 40% Discount

Alimentation Couche-Tard went public in late 1999. A dollar invested in the company in January of 2000 is worth more than $100 today. Shareholders have enjoyed a total return of more than 10,000% or nearly 25% annually for 20 years. The S&P 500 has returned 7% annually over the same time period.

Despite these exceptional long-term total returns, today the stock trades at more than a 40% discount to the S&P 500. Here I’ll take a look at the business, and why such a valuation gap exists.

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Daniel Shuart
Dollar General: Relentless Growth

Dollar General is a beast. They've grown same-store sales for 31 years in a row, straight through recessions, pandemics, wars, and bubbles. I'm not aware of any retailer that can match its record. Not even Walmart can match that record.

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Matt Franz
Spring 2021 Portfolio Update

Every six months Dan and I write a letter to our clients to explain what they own and why they own it. Today we published our Spring 2021 Update, which is excerpted below. To read the entire letter as well as past letters, head over to the Letters section of our website.

As always, the goal of this letter is to explain what you own and why you own it. Our objective remains unchanged: to avoid the permanent loss of capital while maximizing the increase in the long-term, after-tax purchasing power of our funds. Put another way, we aim to build an indestructible long-term compounding machine.

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Matt Franz
Defensive Growth Investing and Investment Ponds

In investing, there are many ways to the top of the proverbial mountain. Fortunes have been made investing in equities, real estate, venture capital, private equity, and commodities. Specifically within equities, managers and individuals have succeeded by investing in statistically cheap stocks, hyper-growth stocks that seem expensive, cyclical companies, and everywhere in between. There are no rules that dictate investors adhere to one type of asset or investment all the time. This is part of what makes investing so much fun.

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Daniel Shuart
Tobacco: Today's Taboo Could Be Tomorrow's ESG

Tobacco is taboo, and that's why tobacco stocks are perennially cheap. But low valuations have only increased returns for owners. Altria is one of the best-performing stocks of all time. $10,000 invested on January 1, 1962, would be worth $135 million today with dividends reinvested. That's a 17% compound annual return for 59 years.

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Matt Franz
The Rise, Fall, and Rise of the New York Times

Not many businesses endure for 170 years. The New York Times has. After 160 years of existence, however, it looked like the business might not survive to see the next decade. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, faced with a mounting debt load, a declining legacy print business, and few answers on how to turn things around, the New York Times scrambled to reinvent itself.

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Daniel Shuart
McKesson: A Royalty On The Pharmaceutical Industry

According to Warren Buffett, the best business is “a royalty on the growth of others, requiring little capital itself.” To illustrate, he’s used the example of a monopoly toll bridge. McKesson fits this mold and offers a 10% earnings yield to boot.

A little over a year ago, Dan wrote up McKesson. It’s a stock we’ve been studying for years and one that continues to intrigue us. Rather than rehash Dan’s article, I’ll briefly reiterate his key insights and then focus on what’s happened over the past year.

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Matt Franz
Schmitt Industries: Annual Update

We’ve received several good questions regarding Schmitt Industries and thought we’d provide an annual update given the amount of change in the business since we originally wrote up the stock last March. For a full background on the company feel free to check out that article. Here I’ll provide an update on each part of the business, and some detail on the recently acquired Ample Hills ice cream brand.

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Daniel Shuart